So Epic pushed a direct payment option into Fortnite this week, Apple pulled the app off the store within hours, and by lunchtime there was a pre-baked anti-Apple advert and a lawsuit waiting in the wings. The whole thing was clearly rehearsed, which is itself the interesting part.
My timeline has fully made its mind up already, in both directions, with the confidence of people who have never had to ship a payment flow through anyone's review process.
I don't have a tidy opinion to sell you. I think a 30% cut is hard to defend in 2020 when the cost of running a store has not gone up the way the catalogue has. I also think "open it all up" quietly assumes the curation and the sandboxing were worth nothing, and I've cleaned up after enough dodgy installers to know they weren't.
What I actually care about, as someone who ships software other people run, is whether this nudges the platform rules toward something predictable. Predictable beats generous. I'd take a clear, boring 20% over a discretionary 30% I can be removed under at a few hours' notice.
Anyway. It'll be in court for years and we'll all have moved on to the next one. Back to work.